That makes it your fault not the game's fault. This is just a different way of handling limits than a hard limit. It's more freeing, but more risky. It's easy to play with a hard limit as you can just self-police.
I think my point is basically that whose fault it is doesn't matter. Players will feel like they've been kicked in the gut by the random number generator any time they suffer a low-probability, high-impact event, as opposed to, say, a series of exponentially worse low-impact events.
But I'm certainly willing to try it and see if I'm wrong. It's an alpha, after all.
Well they should feel like they got kicked in the gut... take this scenario for example...
You're at your fleet point 'safe' limit, get into some battle and maybe you finally have a chance to board and capture a Paragon or something you haven't been able to acquire yet. Now, your fleet points go over that safe limit. You now have the choice to risk trying to keep your entire fleet intact, either for the long term or short term because maybe you're looking to sell ships that will bring you back under your safe cap, or scuttle some of your current fleet to make room for your newly acquired Paragon in a safe manner. If you choose to take the risk for profit or whatever, then you choose to have that 'random number generator' possibly kick you in the gut. Who's fault that is does matter because it is all the player's fault. The player that chooses to take risks has a chance to benefit more greatly than those that choose not to, so it shouldn't be any surprise to those players if an accident happens and they end up losing even more than if they played it safe. Chances are, those players will just reload or something anyways...
Eliminating the accident system means having a simple hard cap method. Take the same scenario as above with a simple hard cap. Full fleet point usage, and now you have a chance to capture that nice Paragon... but, oh... you're at your cap. Too bad. Now players will have to constantly play with 'room' to spare in their fleets, meaning they aren't going to fully utilize their potential. This seems like a waste to me. The soft cap/hard cap method will let players use their full potential (which is their soft cap) and still give them the chance to acquire, take chances, perhaps add an extra ship or two for taking on a tougher fleet for a short time and many other useful scenarios. It's all up to the player.
Anyways, as you said, it's an alpha and its meant to be tested so it can be tweaked and adjusted to work just right or scrapped altogether if it doesn't.