The fact that Alex didn't touch the bar bounties makes it pretty clear that they're supposed to be bad; hence them reliably spawning at roughly twice the distance of a normal bounty. The idea is pretty clear - you do some dirty work for the agent effectively at-cost, and you build up your reputation till he gives you the real good stuff.
Having done some Science, I am back to report on this. It would seem the "good stuff" is not bounty contacts that actually pay out, but the other benefits the contact offers; such as steep discounts on combat ships every now and then.
The contact: "Important" rank military contact affiliated with the Hegemony.
The Target:
Two cruisers, two destroyers, two frigates. Well, more than two frigates. The text in the chat with the contact calling the ship icons "complete" information was a lie. The intel screen properly describes it as "partial info."
The trip: From Naraka, 17 lightyears, 564 fuel and 22 days one way trip (map screen auto-estimate.)
The fleet:
Dominator, Heron, XIV Falcon, two Enforcers, Hammerhead, Drover, two Lashers, two Centurions, three Wolves and a Phateon for tanking. Four officers, only one of which is lvl. 5.
I originally tried with a smaller, more compact fleet, but found that the enemy had officers in almost EVERY ship, some of which were level 7; higher than my own officers can achieve (unless you can do that with story points?) I took a "harder" target from the contact because the ships looked manageable; I was expecting officers in every significant ship, but not level 7 officers even in frigates. And given the DP limitations, this even made my frigates undeployable, and thus useless.
But for the sake of Science, lets pretend this fleet would actually work. The fleet consumes 5.2 supply per day and costs 155 to deploy (minus the tanker and ignoring the few D-mod discounts for simplicity.) 44 day round trip equals 229 supply (rounded up) plus deployment cost for the battle: 384 supplies and 1,128 fuel total. At average price of 100c for supplies and 25c for fuel, that's 66,600 credits upfront costs for 43.4k profit off the 110k bounty. One-way cost should be 115 supplies and 564 fuel to reach the target system. I have the Navigation skill, giving +1 burn and reducing terrain penalties by 30%. This fleet is slowed by about 23% in deep hyperspace (without the frigates and the Drover, it was slowed about 15%.)
I ran three trials for both transit options. The first is to engage autopilot and just hold down Shift, tanking storm hits on the way. This has the benefit of being less tedious.
Trial 1: Arrived/w 187 supply consumed initially, 277 after full repairs. Fuel consumed: 700.
Trial 2: Arrived/w 173 supply consumed initially, 300 after full repairs. Fuel consumed: 695.
Trial 3: Arrived/w 160 supply consumed initially, 235 after full repairs. Fuel consumed: 695.
28200
Average supply: 248.3. Average fuel: 690
The second option is to actually bob and weave through the storms As Intended. This is easier than it was since pressing S not only allows you to
slowly fly through a storm, but it also slows you and lets you pivot your trajectory quicker, as opposed to tapping"5" all the time in 0.91 to engage/disengage sustained burn. It's not perfect though, as unless you are
completely slowed to the "moving slowly" speed the storms can still clip you, so if you misjudge once you can get accelerated by a storm into
another storm and since you're still moving fast... if this happens on the edge of a big patch of deep hyperspace that's nothing but a full computer screen worth of storms (which isn't uncommon at all,) you're going for a ride.
Trial 1: Arrived/w 187 supply consumed initially, 277 after full repairs. Fuel consumed: 700
Trial 2: Arrived/w 112 supply consumed initially, and no repairs needed. Hooray! Fuel consumed: 723.
Trial 3: Arrived/w 160 supply consumed initially, and no repairs needed. Fuel consumed: 774.
Average supply: 186, Average fuel: 732
Doubling these values for a round-trip and adding the 155 supply combat deployment cost (assuming I somehow managed to deploy everyone):
Grugbrain flying: 651 supplies and 1380 fuel. 65,100c supply, 35,500c fuel. Total: 100,600c costs. Profit: 9,400c.
300 IQ flying: 527 supplies and 1464 fuel. 52,700c supply, 36,600 fuel. Total: 89,300c costs. Profit: 20,700c.
Since this takes over a month to complete, and it's clear I can't hope to clear this contract without four or five lvl. 5 officers myself, add in the monthly salary for those officers and you basically break even. These values are too close for coincidence; I suspect that Alex tuned these for this result. The last "hard" bounty contract from this contact I took was 50k reward, and I had to try three or four times before I was able to defeat it; mainly due to friendly AI still being literally too stupid to live. And I still lost a frigate.
The steep discounts on warships sometimes offered are excellent - 1/3rd the cost and "special" ships like XIV variants are included (I snagged my XIV Falcon from that contact) but given that I'd have to do quite a bit of fighting to level up my officers before taking this contract from the guy, I could probably make enough money to buy what I want outright - and it'd be what I want, not whatever ship the RNG proffers up from the contact. And the spysat deployment contracts don't pay much better than the ones I see in bars. None of these can compete with the "dead drop" missions you get from bars/underworld contacts, as those are 70k for essentially flying out to the nearest stars by the core worlds and back again in a single Dram with augmented drive fields installed.
Maybe I could take this fight if I try something Very Clever; deploying my frigates first and grabbing the map objectives to raise my DP allowance so I can bring in my whole fleet. Except it'd be a stiff fight with
every ship deployed outright; given how much an advantage level 5-7 officers give the enemy, and if I run around grabbing objectives first,
then I have to somehow concentrate force on the enemy with my frigates scattered all over the map. And that is
already hard to do given the generally braindead friendly AI; the only method I've ever found to work is to order them to guard a waypoint near the deployment zone, and then,
maybe I can prod them into making properly co-ordinated attacks. And
that depends on my "reckless" officer not proving to be a burden, but I can't not have him because there's only so many officers available to hire that I've found.
I can't say for sure how this is or isn't balanced as there might be aspects I've still yet to encounter, but so far I can't say I'm going to take another mission from a contact. Close fights in Starsector are great fun in
theory, but watching half your combat ships chase lone frigates into the corner of the map while you're being prison-shower shanked by a cruiser, destroyer and two frigates, all with high level officers in them, isn't fun in practice.