Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[arcibalde]

Asteroid impact cannot be "overdue" it's just random, because objects in space don't lose their velocity unless another force acts upon them, two rocks could have collided and a killer asteroid broke off and is headed our way now. Or it might be blocked or pulled by something else millions of light years on it's path to Earth, We just have no way of knowing until it gets closer.

There is pattern, every X year we get hit with asteroid, every Y year we got super volcano eruption, every Z years we got earthquake that creates super tsunami etc. Well i don't remember it, was long time ago when i watch that scientific show. Anyway there is simple pattern, we get hit by something big every ~600k years (i think) and last time we got hit with something big was ~640K years ago, sooooo our asteroid friend is a bit "late" 

[Linnis]

Just because your overdue for an event, don't make it more probable.
Instead of saying 1 asteroid hit every 60k years.
It should be 1/60k chance a asteroid hit in a year.

Maths 

[arcibalde]

Wait, so your saying there is same probability for hit, lets say, 1 year after hit and 600k years after hit? Or i'm getting something wrong?

edit: Or you are saying that after 600k every year have same chance?

[Gotcha!]

Asteroid hit overdue? Well, technically our little corner of space isn't all that 'active' anymore; things settle down as time goes by. So theoretically the chance of Earth being nuked gets smaller every day. That's my logic speaking anyway.

Now there are still plenty of asteroids in the Kuiper Belt ofcourse, of which some might be flung our way, and rogue asteroids cruisin' through space. But we're a small target in the vastness of space, so I don't think we'd need to worry that much.
(Well, ofcourse I don't think we'd need to worry about it anyway, it's not that we can do anything about it. )

[Ranakastrasz]

Overdue for asteroid impact is a ridiculous concept. It is a random event, uninfluenced by previous asteroid impacts.

[Witention]

So True.