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[Bungee_man]

It's one of the big not-explicitly-stated things of Starsector, and it's seen uncountable discussion threads. Looking at the mission texts (among other sources), though, it seems to very strongly hint at Tri-Tachyon being behind it.

• Sinking the Bismar: Tri-Tachyon is explicitly stated to have psychological profiles on Hegemony officers, and to plan around their expected behavior. This seems like a very conspicuous inclusion, and I think the game's writers are fond of using small events to foreshadow larger ones that follow from the same causes.
• The Diktat description states that "Andrada's Hegemony psych profile describes him as "intelligent, charismatic, yet prone to narcissistic excess". Andrada is the only other character to have a psychological profile mentioned, after the possibility of Tri-Tachyon psychoanalyzing Hegemony command staff was set up in the previous item. Creating a crisis on his watch to provoke an overreaction seems like a natural thing to do.
• Forlorn Hope: The description conspicuously mentions a phase cruiser carrying a planet-killer device. While it could, in isolation, just serve to characterize Tri-Tachyon as amoral people who are willing to kill hundreds of millions from orbit to win a war, the explicit inclusion of the information that the PK-carrier was a phase ship, combined with the focus on the mysterious and unattributed destruction of a planet later on, feels calculated.
• The Historian covers pretty thoroughly why Opis's destruction was not what Andrada would have chosen as the catalyst for his own mutiny. "Andrada took a portion - but only a portion - of the Hegemony navy in the course of his mutiny" and "immediately faced with the catastrophic consequences of the Opis incident, ongoing rebellion, complete lack of logistics, and the pressing need to maintain a credible military force against a vengeful Hegemony". It's stated elsewhere that a majority of the Hegemony fleet on hand joined with Andrada over the Hegemony, and reasonable to expect that he could have taken more supporters with him if he had planned things out, or kept the planet-killer as insurance, or chosen to catalyze a mutiny without preemptively destroying what was about to be his.
• Predator or Prey?: Daud's career path to Hegemon involving the command of a cruiser and its escort tells the audience that a successful military career is at least one route (though it is implied to be the predominant one) to positions of extreme authority. Casting Andrada as the perpetrator because of a lust for power raises the obvious question of why he didn't remain in place and seek authority over a much larger military power, especially since his career path at the time appeared to be pointing quite clearly in that direction.
• The Kinetic Blaster description mentions that there has been, "with near certainty, TT technical assistance to Sindrian Mutiny.". This felt a bit strange at first sight - the Diktat's main supplier had been the League, and their special weapons program was not militarily significant enough to take on as an act of charity to an enemy-of-my-enemy. On the other hand, promising potentially world-changing weapons to Andrada fits well with the sense of grandiosity established by his psychological profile, giving Tri-Tachyon an "in" with the leader they created, in addition to supplying them with a politically convenient deniable beta-tester for their reverse-engineered Omega weapons and, doubtlessly, additional income.
• The Timeline places the Askonia crisis right before the Second AI War. Removing Andrada from the equation seems like a vital prerequisite for starting a new war with the Hegemony, given that Tri-Tachyon's military power was already crippled by the first one, and the Hegemony had a legendary, highly-competent hero-admiral to both rally around and use as a magnet for allies.

Aside from the in-game hints, looking at the relevant parties leads us to the same conclusion through process of elimination. Tri-Tachyon is the only actor could possibly have considered blowing Opis up to be beneficial to their interests.

• The in-system parties (government and rebels) are far worse off - Opis was the system's main population center, after all, so most of their loved ones are dead, and even if Andrada hadn't taken power over them, they're now at the center of a major interfactional conflict over WMDs, meaning they've lost their power center and are surrounded by better-armed enforcers who intend to stick around until the bomb situation has been sorted out. Sovereignty and/or independence are out the window no matter how things shake out.
• The Hegemony, even if things went better for them, would have stained the reputation of their legendary admiral by associating his name with a catastrophic megadeath event and damaged their legitimacy as Domain-successors by allowing it to occur on their watch.
• The League, even if blowing up the planet had somehow brought the system into their fold, would've discarded the jewel of the system that they were fighting over, which was already considering membership to begin with.
• Andrada was the lead admiral of a major faction, and would've had a legitimate shot at becoming High Hegemon. The conflict occurred at the worst possible time for him, leaving the legendary hero with only a small fraction of the Hegemony's combined fleets (who, at the time, had idolized him) and in control of a system that had just lost its major planet.

Tri-Tachyon, on the other hand, is now the Diktat's key arms supplier, can use them to test their new weapons prototypes with plausible deniability, has supplied the Hegemony (which had been consistently foiling their efforts) with a painful distraction, and taken a significant chunk out of the Hegemony navy.

[Jumba]

I agree with your conclusion. I hadn't considered the whole phase ship dropping the bomb right under Andrada's nose before but it makes a lot of sense. TT is consistently shown to have no moral issue with committing incredible atrocities in the pursuit of making their shareholders happy.

Just to add to the discussion though I think its quite interesting to hypothesize some alternate scenarios where other factions may have found it beneficial to destroy Opis.

Kazeron specifically may have feared letting such a powerful system into the League would disrupt their domination of the other member states. Askonia without Opis would be ripe for the Gens of Kazeron to swoop in and buy up controlling stakes in the industry and commerce of the remaining planets while still massively boosting their position against the Hegemony. If this was the case obviously the plan failed as Andrada beat them to it but I see it as vaguely plausible.

The Hegemony may have given Andrada specific order to destroy Opis in case its ascension to the league couldn't be prevented, and then planned to just blame Andrada anyway. This would protect the existing political elite from Andrada using his status as a hero to usurp leadership of the faction and also save their public image in the eyes of their citizens and the sector as a whole. Going forward this plan was completely REDACTED and covered up whilst pushing the narrative that Andrada went rogue. Probably the most reasonable alternative theory.

Perhaps the Path had a hand to play. We know they desire planet killers and attempted to obtain them before pawning the task off on the player. Maybe they were already in possession of one and decided to take the opportunity the chaos in the system presented and destroyed the capital. I'm unsure if its mentioned anywhere if Opis was a terraformed world but assuming it was they have a strong desire to destroy it. Personally though I don't find it likely as nothing else really points towards the pathers having an involvement in the system. The curate of the shrine on Volturn claiming allegiance to the official church suggests the path isnt the dominant luddic presence in Askonia.

Andrada himself blowing up the moon as part of a plan to crown himself Hegemon makes no sense, and similarly I don't see why he would destroy it if his goal was to split from the Hegemony to begin with.

Over all I doubt we will get a canon answer to the whodunnit. Its much more interesting for the player to piece it all together themselves and wonder who exactly is responsible for the single greatest loss of life in the core worlds.