While there is already a good Reddit article on the Threat and its History, I think the author was overly eager to connect the dots, so-to-speak. There are some discrepancies I think are dubious, and I would like to see if I can correct them. To that end, I am going to try and present a more objective timeline based on the same text. To do so, I have combed through almost every relevant description, interaction, and canon text I can find in order to put this together. There will be many similarities between the two timelines, but it is my hope that any readers will be able to more closely follow the logic behind any drawn conclusions.
Nanoforges are Introduced... and she said "Let the forges bloom in our Human Domain; so be crowned in the wealth and glory of a thousand stars!" ...
This quote depicts the introduction of the Nanoforges. This is almost certainly the catalyst for what is to come. Note I am omitting quite a bit of the original text. We will eventually cover most of each quote, but for now, hang in there.
Forge Piracy Begins...is a militarized version of the Stencor civilian Mk.III Linear Catapult favored by frontier mining combines. Earned a poor reputation due to accidents caused by unlicensed nanofactured copies.
...is a militarized version of the corporation's heavy civilian model widely employed in terraforming applications. The weapon system was found to be used by anti-Domain 'bandits' on heavy warships and in defensive installations... Stencor Corporation investigated... found not liable for leak of weapon designs."
Stencor later claimed damages from Orion due to the leak of license files to blackweb forge-pirates.
... the Devastator was developed by the Domain Armada using generic parts in response to a rebellious world which managed to acquire an extensive set of fighter LPCs.
A lack of FRM means anyone who has a nanoforge can produce any item blueprint they have access to, with nearly no drawbacks, except a tiny chance of malfunction (drift).
Soon after, this leads to a bunch of rebels and pirates acquiring large amounts of materiel, potentially the entire reason the Domain had to deal with so many rebellions in the first place.
Fires of a Revolution...the Kardakes was first deployed to battle conditions during the retaking of the Eridani1 Insurrec-
... once Armada doctrine matured to the new conditions of the Aquila Brigands' Rebellion, the ibiquitous Iklwa formed the-
-costly embarrassment at Van Maanen's Star was only the proverbial last rod before criticality. Public outrage at all levels led to the opening of investigation into senior-
Armada leadership, most of whom escaped direct prosecution via the 'Grey Wave' which saw nearly four hundred senior officers resign fro-
This was eventually quelled with a dual-action solution. The first is specializing each planet, preventing them from having any general-purpose resources to stoke rebellion. From the Historian,
The Human Domain split key industries into separate worlds, although yes, with redundancies - set well apart from one another. If one world which produces hyperdrives tried to leverage their specialization against the Domain, well, what good are they without raw materials? Or AM fuel? Or, indeed, the basic necessities of life and access to markets?"
"How can one rebel when the Domain need only control the local Gate to lay a complete siege? Which one world could possibly stand against the entire Domain?
The second action was...
Footnote 1: Notice how all the stars/constellations mentioned are very close to Earth? Altair (Aquila), Van Maanen 2, Epsilon Eridani? This is extremely early in the Domain's history...
FRM is Introduced-of the Interstellar Quality and Design Assurance Reforms - a series of acts passed over an energetic dozen cycles by the representative body of the Human Domain and only so-called by later historians - which build the legal basis for sweeping enforcement of fabrication rights management
-making technology of 'signatures' embedded at the nanochemical level by the nanoforge itself with only minimal effects on overall structural in-
Thus ends the human threat of insurrection in the core worlds. But what about the frontier? Recall that there is a tiny amount of drift in the unlicensed nanoforge processes. In the best case, nothing happens, but in worse cases you can get malfunctions. It just so happens that there are large amounts of autonomous drones and sporeships manufactured before FRM was introduced. After hundreds of years, perhaps...
Cracks in the Foundation-ide frontier manufacturing base to leapfrog development in systems newly added to the Gate Network, particu-
The Ilmari-class mobile fabricator hull was likely sent to promising systems before the Gates were set up, necessitating periodic maintenance via the onboard nanoforge. If we assume this, then over the countless lonely cycles, we can start to see defects crop up more and more frequently. An extreme scenario highlights the progressive erratic and anomalous behavior:
Despite the megadeath incident at Hipparcos2 during the 3rd cycle of the 204th assembly, this author argues that it was an act of human error bordering on malfeasance rather than automation which accounts for-
Naturally, millions of dead is a hot topic for the Domain, even if it was a fringe world. This was most likely caused by an action somewhat like the Defabrication Swarm:
those with cybernetic augments - common among spacers and, of course, Company employees and officers - were... harvested
That is not to say that the Fabricator was the sole perpetrator, or even involved. Remember, the vast majority of ships on the frontier are automated at the time. It very well could have been the Fulgurite microwave emitter being mistargeted, or some other ship. I doubt we'll ever know for certain. Regardless, as time continues, the nanoforges crow more and more corrupt, eventually culminating in the inevitable.
Footnote 2: Fun fact! Every stellar object here was actually part of a ESA star survey called "Hipparcos" and is part of a, for the time, massive repository of stars, chock full of information. Or David could have looked at the Wikipedia articles for the stars, they are right next to the distance measurements for Polaris, Alnitak, and Gamma Cygni as of writing.
The Threat Are BornWe are never given a precise date, but we can infer based on these quotes, or rather,
single quote:
-shall not back down, we shall never withdraw. From the Belt of Orion to the Polaris Frontier, from-
-the Terran Core to the Sadr Region, our battlegroups3 stand ready to protect our way of life, our very existence!
Polaris is ~400 light years away. Sadr (Gamma Cygni) and the Belt of Orion are both ~1200-2000 light years away(!). Quite a bit of time has passed! This is how we know it took a long time for these drifts to insidiously culminate into something harmful.
From there, the Threat are fought and dealt with, banished to the dark beyond the night as they passed into history. History became legend. Legend became myth. And some things that should not have been forgotten were lost...
Until the Domain Explorarium ordered a non-routine survey of a Nameless Rock. High energy reading were detected (most likely due to orbital bombardment from you know who), and the Collapse happened shortly after. Coincidence? I don't know.
Footnote 3: This is also the earliest first-hand source we have mentioning Domain Battlegroups. This was likely before formal enumeration, though I would bet that we get another Battlegroup somewhere in-game because of this.
EpilogueThere we go! My proposed alternate timeline of the Threat. Alas, it would not be a proper theory if it didn't have holes.
Hole 1The "Terran Core" raises some questions, as by now, according to
A True and Accurate History of the Persean Sector, Earth should be devastated. It is noted that by now "the majority of human population and industry was almost certainly off-world and increasingly out-of-system anyway. The Old Earth was just a symbol by then anyway." If that is the case, why refer to by a label as as important as the "Core", still? Could it be that the Threat...? To quote the Historian:
Every day we survive by powerful technologies which any one of us barely understands, and which may unleash truly apocalyptic destruction.
Or perhaps the Domain is not telling the whole truth...
Hole 2What of the Hive Ship? It is a complete, and I do mean
complete unknown. We have no information on what this thing is, or where it came from, but it certainly triggers the crap out of Domain INFOSEC.
Hole 3What would the story look like if the Fabricator Units were not sent before the Gates arrived?
I'm sure there are more holes, there always are. But I'm getting tired of writing, so I shall leave with a final quote from the Historian which inspired this fevered project. Thanks!
"The real secrets are wiped, of course, but the story is all there..."