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Starsector 0.95.1a is out! (12/10/21); Blog post: Hostile Activity (09/01/22)

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Author Topic: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector  (Read 10115 times)

Redmoe

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Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« on: April 01, 2021, 09:19:37 AM »

Did the calculation on the population of Core sector based colony sizes. By this metric, the Core sector is between 177 million and 1.7 billion total population.

The whole of the sector could fit on a size 10^8 planet in the lower estimate and a size 10^9 in the upper estimate. For comparison that's the population of Brazil at the lower estimate and the population of the China and the USA combined in the higher estimate.

Made some graphs from the data:



There are 62 populated planets in the system (including decivilized population planets). Three are decivilized by default (not counting generated decivilized). The average planet size is 10^5, and there is only one size 10^8 planet in the whole system (Chicomoztoc, Aztlan Star System capital of the Hegemony).



The distribution of the planets by ownership is pretty even, with independent and pirate colonies making up a large portion.



However, when you organize planets by population size, the only size 10^8 planet makes up over 50% of the sector population (Chico).



Which means that when looking at the sizes of factions by population, the Hegemony pulls far ahead of the rest with it's size 10^8 and other large colonies. Tri-tachyon is tiny by comparison (making them the literal 1%). Sindrian Diktat, while only having 3 planets, has two size 10^7 thus they punch up way above their planet count.


Here's a graph with Chico left out. As can see, the other factions with larger numbers of size 7 planets begin to pull way ahead of the Hegemony.


If you take out the factor of 10, you get a graph that looks fairly balanced with how powerful each faction is framed. Hegemony and Persean are head to head, Tri-Tachyon small but still powerful, and Sindria a minor regional power.

I'd take this all with a grain of salt. Interesting seeing how much the difference of a power of 10 makes. Makes size 10^9 and 10^10 seem impossible for the sector, so glad they got capped.

There are worlds with the decivilized modifier or had population before. Rough estimates of their population:

Maxios (5-6), former capital of Maxios system it is now looted and devolved into chaos. Would have been as large as Novis Maxios at least.
Crom Croch (3-4), a mining colony destroyed after the collapse.
Hannah Pacha (6-7), description says millions dead so at least 10^6.
Opis (7-8), capital of Askonia system, was destroyed by a planet-killer causing the Askonia crisis. Considering the large refugee population on the other planets in the system, very large population.
Killa (3-4), attack on their domes and left decivilized.
Mariaath (6-7), was devastated by the Luddite attack and had a strong enough military to oppose Hegemony expansion was fairly sizeable. at least bigger than it's current state.
Zorrah (3-4), used for resource gathering by the Hegemony so unlikely to have ever had a large presence if any.

Using these very coarse assumptions, 12 million to 1.2 billion lives have been lost.

It would take 177 10^6 (1 million people) colonies for the Player to have as much population as the core sector using the lower estimate. It would take about 17 colonies if the players colonies are counted for 9.99 million while the rest of the sector counted 177 million.

(poorly organized) Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KSDkr3VSk_XvkW8mc6H2diKau_6583W5h7mFDSd6djk/edit?usp=sharing
« Last Edit: May 08, 2022, 07:07:34 PM by Redmoe »
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pairedeciseaux

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2021, 10:35:57 AM »

Nicely done! (with appropriate choice of color)

So according to these estimates, total population across all Tri-Tachyon colonies is between 1.2 million and 12 million humans. Does that sound right?

Considering player fleet may have between 1000 and 3000 crew (ok, more or less), that's an interesting perspective.

Also, I'm a bit concerned about size 3 colonies. I mean, how many people are required just to operate the spaceport? I feel like Hegemony inspection should be dispatched there to check for unlawful equipment.

Call the lore master immediately, people of the Sector need to know the truth!  :D

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Chronia

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2021, 10:43:37 AM »

Cool! This is really well presented. I was just thinking about this the other day but was way too lazy to put the numbers together myself; thanks for doing it!

It also really explains why player colony sizes were capped at 6 in the 0.95a - where would all the people be coming from if it was allowed to be any bigger!
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Igncom1

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2021, 10:48:56 AM »

And this is just the settled peoples living on the worlds and stations!
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Redmoe

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2021, 10:57:45 AM »

Nicely done! (with appropriate choice of color)

So according to these estimates, total population across all Tri-Tachyon colonies is between 1.2 million and 12 million humans. Does that sound right?

Considering player fleet may have between 1000 and 3000 crew (ok, more or less), that's an interesting perspective.

Also, I'm a bit concerned about size 3 colonies. I mean, how many people are required just to operate the spaceport? I feel like Hegemony inspection should be dispatched there to check for unlawful equipment.

Call the lore master immediately, people of the Sector need to know the truth!  :D



yep that's about right! tri-tachyon not having a size 7 colony really hurts their numbers, to begin with they don't have a lot of planets.

Cool! This is really well presented. I was just thinking about this the other day but was way too lazy to put the numbers together myself; thanks for doing it!

It also really explains why player colony sizes were capped at 6 in the 0.95a - where would all the people be coming from if it was allowed to be any bigger!

your welcome! was worried someone else might get around to it /already did it tbh
And this is just the settled peoples living on the worlds and stations!
!
yep! only the core sector which can start with some extra random decivilized. I added a list of the known destroyed worlds to try and get a estimate on how many have been lost.
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snarst

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2021, 02:08:30 PM »

Wait are you telling me that all the core worlds combined are at best not even 15% of earths current population?
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Rody_

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2021, 02:16:48 PM »

Wow, I never really thought about how Chico is home to literally half the population in the Sector. Great work!
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Redmoe

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2021, 02:23:08 PM »

Wait are you telling me that all the core worlds combined are at best not even 15% of earths current population?
by the population size factor, yes. But I'd take it with a grain of salt since it's a gameplay abstraction.
Wow, I never really thought about how Chico is home to literally half the population in the Sector. Great work!
Yeah I was surprised by too! That 1 factor difference makes a giant difference! Although Chico seems small when compared to the Earth's 7 billion, by the standards of the Persean system it really is a hive world!
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Kanil

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2021, 03:33:06 PM »

The sector definitely seems underpopulated when you look at the numbers. A lot of planets certainly aren't written like they're the size of a single city rather than an entire world, but if you just think of it more abstractly with a size 6 planet as being bigger than a 5 and smaller than a 7, then it seems a lot less odd.
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Redmoe

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2021, 03:48:45 PM »

The sector definitely seems underpopulated when you look at the numbers. A lot of planets certainly aren't written like they're the size of a single city rather than an entire world, but if you just think of it more abstractly with a size 6 planet as being bigger than a 5 and smaller than a 7, then it seems a lot less odd.
yeah it doesn't seem supported by lore and is likely just a gameplay abstraction. even chico being sub a billion seems rather low.
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Igncom1

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2021, 03:57:43 PM »

Well to be fair we went most of human history below 1 billion people. And with all the automated technology and forges it stands to reason that you might not even need that many to begin with.

The luddites find that hard, obviously!
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Histidine

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2021, 05:58:52 PM »

Good Ludd
If you just look at the colony counts and don't think too hard about the order-of-magnitude implications of the market sizes (like I did), League looks like a near-peer competitor to Hegemony, and Diktat like its dictator proxy state. But by population, the Diktat is almost as big as the League, which is just big enough to be a moderate inconvenience to the Hegemony.

Although mapping population to strength clearly has its limits (RL example: compare India with the US). Tri-Tachyon did stand a credible chance of winning the Second AI War against the 100 times larger Hegemony.
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Voyager I

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2021, 06:30:21 PM »

It's also worth considering that most of the worlds in the sector are pioneer colonies that were abandoned halfway through development.  I would imagine that they are, in general, not that welcoming Human life outside of the developed areas.  An entire planet with the population of New York City is still going to feel crowded if the majority of the population is stuffed into a developed habitable zone roughly the size of New York City.
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Redmoe

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2021, 06:44:29 PM »

Good Ludd
If you just look at the colony counts and don't think too hard about the order-of-magnitude implications of the market sizes (like I did), League looks like a near-peer competitor to Hegemony, and Diktat like its dictator proxy state. But by population, the Diktat is almost as big as the League, which is just big enough to be a moderate inconvenience to the Hegemony.

Although mapping population to strength clearly has its limits (RL example: compare India with the US). Tri-Tachyon did stand a credible chance of winning the Second AI War against the 100 times larger Hegemony.
Yep, def made me want go rewatch Powers of 10. Diktat did have the advantage of Opis blowing up and creating a refugee crisis. I also feel like their high pop might be a hold over from being the second system ever added. Probably the real reason they get a higher pop is to gameplay balance how few planets they have. Population also has diminishing returns on industrial base in game (Chico doesn't produce 100 times everyone for example), so they look more balanced on the market screen. I def feel the planet count graph more accurately depicts the power dynamics described in lore. Might add another graph that counts without the powers of 10 to see what the distribution is like.
It's also worth considering that most of the worlds in the sector are pioneer colonies that were abandoned halfway through development.  I would imagine that they are, in general, not that welcoming Human life outside of the developed areas.  An entire planet with the population of New York City is still going to feel crowded if the majority of the population is stuffed into a developed habitable zone roughly the size of New York City.
Good point! A lot of even the inhabited ones are harsh planets. Even Chico has pollution and a thin atmosphere. The Collapse did a ton of damage, and the wars since haven't helped. Most planets aren't even self-sufficient food wise so a high mortality rate is a given.
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Duloth

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Re: Calculating the Population Size of the Core Sector
« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2021, 07:08:04 PM »

Chico has a thin atmosphere; and what little of it thats left is polluted. People are probably constantly dying of cancer and toxic fumes left and right, with everyone living inside domes as much as possible. Its surprising that it has as much population as it does.

In the long run, barring politics, Gilead would end up as the most populated world, as its the only one people would naturally -want- to live on, and be able to survive long-term without tech assistance.

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