Having recently come back to the game (last played v0.8 ), I feel like the economy is much better than it was before, but (non-smuggling) trade has never felt particularly viable compared to things like bounty hunting and exploration. The UI improvements and excess/shortage system make commodity trading much easier in terms of figuring out where the opportunities are. So here's my thoughts on the current state of trading:
I believe the following should be true of commodity trading (buying/selling commodities for a profit):
- Trading on the open market should not be profitable under normal conditions
- Trading on the open market, by either buying from an excess, or selling to a shortage, should, under most conditions, be profitable.
- Trading on the black market should be more profitable if done in the same volume as trading on the open market.
- Trading on the black market in high volume should come with significant risks or penalties with non-pirate factions
- Trading on the black market in illegal commodities should be (more easily) profitable than other types of commodity trading, as there are risks to getting caught.
- Significant trading with Pirates (and Pathers) should result in risks and/or penalties (beyond potentially getting attacked by them), even if done with the transponder off.
Currently, tariffs achieve (1) and (3), but are so high that they almost completely block (2) (this has been the case for as long as I've been playing Starsector). Even buying/selling a commodity at a 100% markup, you will only gain 10% of the value of the commodity you traded is (buy at 130%, sell at 140%). This prevents all but the best deals from being profitable on the open market. As a result, all profitable commodity trading takes place on the Black Market, which seems unintuitive for larger volumes of trading. Significantly reducing tariffs to even something as low as 10 or maybe even 5% would still achieve (1) and (3) while actually allowing (2) to become true. Some additional work might be needed to reduce the viability of black market trade in large volumes, but reducing tariffs would be an important step in allowing open market trading to become viable.
(5) continues to be true, as this has been the classic 'smuggler' route, and it works well. (especially as there is almost always a shortage of drugs somewhere or another)
Disruptions caused by lost trade fleets allows small opportunities, and would allow (2) if the tariffs were not so high. However, the big money to be made in commodity trading comes from disrupted spaceports.
Currently, a disrupted Spaceport in a system results in some insane profiteering due to a mix of how the various systems work. A disrupted Spaceport often means access will drop to 0% or less, meaning nothing is getting shipped in or out. This causes massive shortages and excesses across the board on most planets/stations. Since most trade happens on the black market, which does not affect shortages, the shortage continues until the spaceport is fixed. A single planet/station with a disrupted spaceport for a few months can easily result in a million credits of profit in that time period, with almost no risk and only a little reputation loss, without trading in any illegal goods (which can often double the profits).
As an example from a recent new game, Tigra City (size 4, Mining (moderate ore), Spaceport, Orbital Station) got hit in a Pirate raid, disrupting the Spaceport. This resulted in a shortage of 600 supplies, 1000 fuel, 100 heavy machinery, 200 luxury goods, 600 domestic goods, and 1500 organics (and 800 recreational drugs, 200 organs). All of these ended up at about 2x normal price, meaning that every time the shortage reset, there was a profit available of ~175,000 from only buying/selling regular commodities on the black market, almost all of which was easily sourced from planets within the system (meaning I did not need a tremendously large cargo fleet). If you add in the illegal trading, there was a further ~200,000 credits available every shortage reset. This is all from a size 4 colony with just mining and a spaceport. Naturally, this opportunity resulted in me clearing a million credits easily within the first cycle of the game, without any major risks and only the loss of about 10-15 reputation with the Hegemony from scans and trade on the black market. (And it could have been optimized further by turning off my transponder when selling to Tigra City, as no patrols were nearby). This currently means that (4) is not the case, as I am able to carry out high volume black market trading for months at a time, with only minor penalties (I would happily trade 20+ reputation with a faction for a million credits when starting out).
These opportunities are not too uncommon either, as Pirate and Pather bases in the core worlds also occasionally get disrupted by major faction patrols (in addition to successful pirate raids against major factions). As you are trading on the black market with your transponder off (the only way to gain access to a port while hostile to Pirates/Path + no penalties for using the black market), you do not lose any reputation with major factions (when selling to the Pirates/Pathers) for a significant amount of smuggling. As long as you have a few combat ships in your fleet, the small pirate/pather fleets will leave you alone. This goes against (6). These longer-term shortage trading opportunities completely trivialize the early parts of the game, allowing you to basically buy any ship you can find after a few ingame months of trading.
IMO, having the Spaceport disrupted should not result in such a severe access penalty, unless a change is made such that the markets of a planet/station with 0% access or less is not accessible (after all, how do you trade with the planet if none of the AI trade fleets can?). Perhaps just removing the -50% access from not having a spaceport is sufficient. Furthermore, at least a portion of commodities sold on the black market should probably go back to solving shortages on a planet/station. This would significantly reduce the amount of money to be made from these long-term shortages.
Procurement missions and delivery missions are both good, and allow constant trading, even when there are no shortages. Procurement missions issued from a planet/station where there is already a shortage often means just extra profit, as they don't contribute to ending the shortage, and offer an even higher profit margin.
Random related ideas related to trading that I'd love to see in the future (maybe some of these are already coming, or already exist but don't seem to occur for one reason or another):
- Procurement missions contributing to supply (where does it go?), especially if issued during a shortage
- Some sort of investigation system, where there are consequences for trading in high volumes on the black market with a faction continuously. Possibly with bribes to avoid penalties. (related to (4) and maybe (6))
- Significantly more restricted black market commodity trading (limited to lower volumes of buying) at non-free ports without investment of skill/story points (need to source a drug/organ supplier) (somewhat related to (4))
- Procurement missions for Luddic Path cells (Marines/Heavy Armaments/Supplies/Fuel) that can trigger activity, with consequences (potentially similar for pirate procurement missions?)
- Government-related delivery missions for relieving shortages, especially if commissioned
