Ah, huh, I'd been under the impression that the "GPU History" thing was displaying GPU processor usage rather than VRAM usage. It's not exactly well-documented.
However, its little blue bars seem to hover at around the 50% mark while cruising around in the campaign - which is where I'm getting the 'zero vram' message from Starsector - and I haven't seen it spike above 2/3 outside of combat, inventory/fleet screens and, for whatever bizarre reason, the map screen, where it goes to 100% and stays there. ...Yeah, that's acting like a GPU processor usage indicator rather than anything VRAM related, especially since it goes back to near-zero any time I tab out of Starsector with the game paused.
Let me go get iStat, then.