@kazi: I agree that it's not necessarily a good cut and I get the ROI arguments.
That's all subject to change, though; we'll see what happens next, when a big, polished project decides to go pro. The market's reaction to these things will be very interesting; I'm guessing that the first few times, this ends in a fracas, because the world of modding now is so used to people ripping each other off, lol. Then people will get their acts together and the market will buy stuff if it's good.
I don't think the example of "helmet guy" was bogus at all, and I didn't raise him as a straw man. People like him are precisely what this is about, to me.
I darn well think that people like that will charge for their work now, and people will pay for it. You might not, but the kids who grew up on micro-payments and DLC won't bat an eye at shelling out a buck for something that's nice and enhances their game, especially if the first few builds were released for free to build interest. Just wait and see; excellent collections of quality art can and will be commercialized now.
How this scenario changes what games cost up-front for the core package (i.e., the broader economic implications of this) is also an interesting question. Perhaps a AAA can make a game with a price-point of $10, make it very moddable, and then make its long-term profits off of the Steam market? I'm sure there are people looking at that ROI picture right now.
Mods have always been a "for free" endeavor. People made them not because they thought they'd make money off them, but because it's a fun thing to do.
Er, maybe some places, like here. Not when we're talking about major AAA mods for AAA engines. They are mainly student resume pads or "hey, I'm between gigs and this is what I can do in a month" by pros, surrounded by a huge clutter of lone-wolf and minor-league stuff, some good, some bad.
Counter-Strike, for example, wasn't just a couple of guys screwing around in a basement; they were using professional-grade tools and had already developed a hit project and were on VaLVe's radar.
What this changes is the all-or-nothing nature of the beast.
Instead of, "victory is if EA wants to hire me" and defeat is an opportunity cost, it's "victory is 100K downloads, a new car, and if EA doesn't hire me, do it again" and defeat is likely "enough beer money that I feel like I did something more useful than just hack at a project for months, only to get a rejection letter".
It's going to change the psychology involved quite a bit; amongst other things, perhaps it'll change the dynamic where the typical serious modder lasts about 3 years and quits when they realize they're not on the shortlist to work at a major publisher, even if their work has developed a large following.
For artists, sound and music people, this is a bigger deal than for the coders; coders often have a lucrative exit path doing "boring" stuff, most artists who've largely steered their skills into gamedev art have placed a larger bet, and a huge number of them crash and burn out of the market every year, despite having a lot of potential, which I've always thought was a sad waste of human resources.
Let's use Starsector for an example... should every mod have to shell out a portion of the profits for ShaderLib/LazyLib? How do you decide which contributors get what? Is that guy who contributed one line of code going to try to start shaking you down? Should you start including watermarks and copyright protection *** in even art/music/sfx demos that you send on to friends?
You'll handle that stuff the same way you do in commercial game-dev, if you're a serious person who wants to make money.
For the most part, that's straightforward stuff. I predict that there is going to be a heck of a lot of Wiki-making about dealing with the legal issues really soon, though, which is of benefit to everybody, including Indie devs.