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Author Topic: Humanity's True Future  (Read 9370 times)

Muchoman798

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Humanity's True Future
« on: April 14, 2014, 04:07:30 PM »

Hello All! If you're reading this, you're one of the few to be visiting the general discussion forums, so yay!

Anywho, I came here with a purpose: to see what everyone has to think about the future of mankind. As an adolescent about to choose his future -- college, apprenticeship, service, science, health, etc. -- humanity sits with everything laid before it, every possibility still feasible.

This thread is for talking about both the general and the specific, the grand plans and the little details. Do you think mankind will have a future like Star Trek, of seeking new life and new civilization in friendship? Or do you think we will stay a hermit of a race, ignoring the chance of space? Do you think that we will have space habitats in twenty years? thirty? fifty? a century? Perhaps we will soon settle Mars. Maybe Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) craft are the key, the secret, to all that is to come. Maybe we will never break the lightspeed barrier.

Anything, any thoughts you have on the future of man, post them here!

Here are my own
Spoiler
I think that SSTOs are the next step in man's future. They will open up space travel to all manner of people, and make construction of stations and in-orbit ship yards possible. Perhaps we will build the first interplanetary transport with parts brought up by SSTOs. I think SSTOs will be in use within ten years, and see wide use in the next twenty. Maybe then we will begin building colonies on the moon for harvesting ore from asteroids. And I think we will be stuck in our planetary system, by and large, for the next thirty years at least. By that point, maybe ion engines will be more useful, or a new type of engine will make interplanetary travel practical, as SSTOs are bound to for ground-orbit travel. Beyond that are the first starships. I wish I could see that far ahead, know that man will reach the stars. I'm confident we will, for we must. We must to satisfy our need for exploration. We must because that's where the future is.
Overtime, I think our society will evolve into a Star Trek like one. Some great war will come and threaten to destroy all of mankind, and we will see it pass, and we will resolve never to allow it to happen again. We will unite under one banner. We will help the poor and sick, finally. But getting to that point won't be easy. I'm sure it will take the death of millions, either by disease, famine, or war. Maybe interstellar colonies will revolt, and it will be needed to protect our ways. Perhaps an alien life form will threaten us. I don't know.
I think we will meet many societies in the stars. Many forms of intelligent life. I hope we do.
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Gotcha!

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2014, 05:09:06 AM »

As our already much too high population levels continue to rise, global warming will become a serious issue.
For every bunch of new-borns, more cars will be needed, factories, power plants, cows etc. And when we finally go past a particular threshold, Earth will no longer be able to repair itself.
I don't see governments jumping into this huge problem, so eventually Earth will turn into a shithole. Food scarsety, air polution, crime and even war. Afterall, too many people in one place creates tension.

And people will continue to procreate, because people don't care about the future or are ignorant about what they're doing to this planet in the long run. As long as they can live their own lives in peace until they die.

Going to space? With all the ongoing problems on Earth, there'll be no money left to invest in things like space ships and space stations.
Not to mention that the nearest Earth-like planet is too far away. We'll never be able to just fly over there.
Maybe we'll be visiting Jupiter's Europa, Saturn's Enceladus or Saturn's Titan, to see if there's life there. But that's it. No human will ever manage to leave our solar system. Mainly because of the light speed barrier that just cannot be broken.

What about folding space? Creating worm holes? Can't humans travel to other planets by jumping?
This is all theoretic, but let's say worm holes exist: Humans won't be traveling through them in order to reach other planets. The technology needed for a fantastic feat like that, it'd never be available for us. Even if we'd be capable at some point to create wonders in technology, the strife amongst ourselves in the future will keep us away from our technological advancement.

Like The RHCP sings so well: Space may be the final frontier, but it's made in a Hollywood basement.

Bleak? Pessimistic? Perhaps. But in my opinion rather realistic too. :-X
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ValkyriaL

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2014, 07:36:40 AM »

we don't have a future, humanity will destroy itself with nuclear weapons before that happens.
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Gothars

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2014, 08:04:54 AM »

I think the last great invention (or rather development) of biological humans will be a conscious, self-improving AI. Within an relatively short period after that, the relevance of biological humans will fade into obscurity, maybe they will cease to exist altogether. I think there is neither a way nor a reason to stop that from happening, eventually. Probably before any large scale colonization of space can take place.
But I think the way the transition happens will be a testament to the human race. Will it be an uprising of machine-slaves? A war of rouge computer generals? Or will we build the AI as our own children, and thus witness every parents dream come true: That their children surpass them and get to live a better life. If it happens that way I have hope that our children can carry some of our values and dreams with them, and that the spirit of humanity will go on for a long time.

« Last Edit: April 15, 2014, 08:06:38 AM by Gothars »
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Debido

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2014, 08:55:05 AM »

AI is a maybe, we can make smart code, but the code is just that. Something that is described by a human. Certainly these days computer programs are used to procedurally generate new CPU chips, but that is not AI that is just math, rules and computing power. The relative 'circuit density' and number of 'circuits' in a human brain relative to a computer chip is enormous...anyway, time will tell on that one it is a possibility.

Going to space and colonising it is pretty much a no go until we can figure out how to produce energy from really exotic sources. The power to weight ratio of fission/fusion reactors for space based travel is still too lower to be of any significant value. Forget money problems, unless tomorrow some scientist figures out how to use something like vacuum energy, or safely produce anti-matter...yeah, not going to happen. We are stuck on the rock.

I pretty much agree with everything Gotcha! said
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arcibalde

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2014, 09:19:52 AM »

Meteor hit is overdue, super volcano eruption is overdue, super tsunami is overdue and over top of that "our" space program is taking backwards ever since we make first step on Moon. Beside that i heard/read (somewhere, don't know where) that our brain aka IQ is going full speed backwards, so average dude from like 2k years before would be much smarter than average dude now  ;D

So, all in all, we got few natural Armageddons just waiting to happen and we don't get smarter. Don't think we are going anywhere  ;D  And if we manage to dodge all that i don't think we can survive our natural dumbness :D  we are expert in exterminating each other.
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lStealtherl

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2014, 10:02:40 AM »

I'd say as long society has the profit-based mentality, we won't ever see the light of stepping on another planet than moon. Humankind will perish within 1000 years.
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arcibalde

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2014, 11:52:43 AM »

I'd say as long society has the profit-based mentality, we won't ever see the light of stepping on another planet than moon. Humankind will perish within 1000 years.
Pfff you optimist  ;D
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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2014, 11:57:30 AM »

Within a 1000 years? Society as it exists today will probably no longer exist. Perhaps even going back in time, technology wise, due to global wars.
But humans are like cockroaches. It'll take some serious effort to wipe them all out within ten centuries. ;D
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HELMUT

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2014, 12:41:39 PM »

A full scale nuclear warfare won't cause the extinction of humanity, even with a 99% causality rate. Humans are like cockroach, they'll be living a terrible, depressing life but it's will be extremely difficult to be driven to our total extinction. It may drive our civilization a few centuries back in time though.

Star Trek style civilization seems extremely unlikely to me as the Human body require an outrageous amount of needs that prevent any kind of space exploration. To me, humanity will never leave earth, with the exception of some early exploration expedition (like the moon in 1969 and maybe later, Mars).

Gothars theory seems the most likely to me. If we need to go to the stars, we'll send automated drones for us. Drones don't need life support systems and an entire miniaturized ecosystem for long travels. Also you can't load a human in a space launching railgun unless you want his brain splattered against his own cranium, drones can. It will at least resolve the 20.000$/kilo for a standard launch into orbit.

While we have machine mining and exploring the universe, we will control these from Earth. Given that none of our governments care much about important questions like ecology and population controls, our Earth will be a living hell-hole in the future. It shouldn't be that much of a big deal though as we will probably live 90% of our live in virtual worlds, a bit like the Matrix. It's already like this for some of people in some way.

Wouldn't be surprised that in one or two centuries we'll have some autofactories around the galaxy while we'll all be playing the hundredth WoW expansion on Earth with Oculus Rift V154.52.

And then Alex will finally release the beta of Starsector.
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Megas

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2014, 06:34:18 AM »

Humanity's true future will be what is written in the Holy Bible, and will happen sooner than we think.  The righteous will be in the kingdom of God while the wicked will burn in the lake of fire.
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FasterThanSleepyfish

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2014, 09:08:30 AM »

Not sure if troll

Or just sarcastic
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arcibalde

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2014, 09:12:57 AM »

Well: "Time will tell. Sooner or later time will tell."  8)
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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2014, 09:23:21 AM »

@Foxer360: A little bit of both I think. x)
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Muchoman798

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Re: Humanity's True Future
« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2014, 12:52:54 PM »

Jesus Christ, you guys are a cheery bunch. I love the optimism here.

Let me say why I think we have a future, and a bright one at that.

The Skylon, the first SSTO craft, is slotted to fly in 2016 for the first time. It will bring the $20,000/kilogram price to $450-$950/kilogram. That's still a lot, but it is a whole lot less. It will be the first step in removing the barrier on craft size, as we can bring up many tiny parts and assemble in orbit.

Staying on with the prospect of space, our engines are on the brink of an explosion of diversity and power. Right now, we have chemical rockets. Those are *** poor excuses for technology, abundantly wasteful, and impractical for actual space exploration/colonization. But look at what is on the horizon. Someone mentioned vacuum-energy technology. That is being investigated. But that's still conjecture, what about things we actually have coming around the corner? Magnetoplasma rockets are, which will do wonders for travelling within the solar system. Opposed to a nine month transit and two year waiting period before another transit for Mars, we could see a two month transit and turn around a month later, for a total of five months instead of about four years.

Or ion engines. They're becoming more powerful, and are already plenty efficient. With being able to assemble space craft in orbit, ion engines could become truly viable to move us at great speeds and low costs.

Then there is the entire world of unexplored physics. We have no true understanding of the universe yet. From all we can tell, we know almost nothing. There will always be something to discover. What if we discover new areas of physics that allow us to break the lightspeed barrier? I don't doubt that we will, it may just take time. Even if we can't, we can colonize the stars with relativistic ships, powered by various methods. One is the use of fusion bombs, but that's a bit crazy. If there were some way to accelerate to .5c, a ship could travel to a distant star with the same crew as upon launch. Hundreds of years would have passed around them, but we'd still be able to perpetuate mankind.

And looking to Earth herself, this cradle of life, you all speak of it becoming Detroit, just on a bigger scale (sorry Detroit, but you do suck.) I cannot see that happening, and that's not based upon opinion, but instead ecology. The carrying capacity of the Earth for human life will be reached at some point. When we get there, people will have children for a while and pass the capacity, until they start seeing many of their kids die. Within one or two generations, natural instincts will kick in to slow down reproduction. We see it in many ecosystems worldwide, in many species across many genera. When they hit the carrying capacity, the population swells above it, dips below, and then stabilizes. It has been selected for and remains in practically every sexual species.

Even so, what of genetic engineering? We are making crops which need not have pesticides, which can use less water, which have more yield and nutrients per calorie, which do less damage to the soil, which grow more quickly. This will expand the carrying capacity further, and allow us to not suffer for it.

As population swells, urban settings will expand. We do see, however, more and more people living in cities, where density is far higher than the country side. We can more efficiently store billions in cities with less land-based impact on the environment. It wouldn't be much more crowded than the metropolises of today. As I recall, we can fit half of the entire human population of Earth today in Rhode Island, if the density were the same as New York City. When more and more people are born, these mega cities will spread; and there will be enough room.

There are two killers here. Fossil fuels and nuclear weapons. If only it weren't so.

Fossil fuels will keep killing our planet for as long as we use them. That is undoubtedly true. We cannot use them forever, though. The supplies are running out. Our consumption of this dwindling resource may be speeding up, but we are already developing means to kick our addiction. When we run out, we will have done irreparable harm to the biosphere. Pollution, in air, land, and sea, will be devastating. Greenhouse effects will change many climates and kill many ecosystems. They are doing this. But these fuels will run out, and we will find an alternative. It may cause undue harm, but it won't kill us, it won't end us. Wars may be fought over the last supplies... and they may be catastrophic in the death toll. So long as nuclear weapons are not used extensively, we will recover. We recovered from WWI in time to have WWII. So we shall again.

But nuclear weapons are the most likely downfall to man. M.A.D. tells us we all will perish if one is launched, and it is indeed true. It is the dice of fate that will tell what happens here. I can only hope we do not murder ourselves foolishly.

I doubt a nuclear war will come. As we go on, as humanity moves forward, we will continue to discover new technologies and new sciences. We will find new ways of manipulating our environment, and I think we will reach the stars. To say we know everything about the lightpseed barrier is ignorant. We are always discovering two questions for every answer, and we may one day find an answer which provides us a cheat. An answer like the Alcubierre drive -- I use this example not because it will come to fruition, but because of the idea behind it. With enough creativity, we can find ways to cheat c, or discover rules which allow presently unimaginable forms of travel.

I see humans as fundamentally good. It is clear most of you disagree. I recognize it takes one bad apple to ruin the bunch, or even that many good people together are bad, but individually, almost all of us are good. Our society will have its inevitable stumbles. War. Famine. Disease. Hatred. But we will overcome. I see growing cooperation between many nations, even as there is evermore polarization. As knowledge spreads, so too does acceptance and tolerance. If we can teach the world, we can fix many problems, and pave a good future.

All this said, I go back to what I opened with. We are like an adolescent on the brink of college. All the possibilities are ahead. It is now that we choose where to go. We are at that pivotal point, and we just need to grasp the reins. I think we can. I disagree with the overwhelming pessimism here.
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