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Author Topic: realistic space colonization  (Read 3443 times)

blainedeyoung

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realistic space colonization
« on: December 23, 2020, 06:27:09 PM »

Hi, all, I considered putting this under the Suggestions forum, but I don't think it's really a practical suggestion for this game.  However, I suspect I'm among like-minded individuals here.  This game clearly aims at being more realistic than your typical space colonization sim, so I thought I'd throw this out there as a discussion for future directions. 

The current state of sci-fi generally is, lamentably, based on a 1960's understanding of what space colonization is going to look like.  We're starting to see some progress in this regard, the show/book series The Expanse is moving in the right direction. 

On the other hand people are still making games like Stellaris and Galactic Civilizations, a Star Trek model of space colonization.  Ships travel faster than light from system to system looking for worlds that are so earth-like you can just land on them, walk around barefoot, and eat the fruit off the trees.  The federation is made up of scores of these "earth-like" planets in different star systems with a handful of small space stations in between, and the main limit on expansion is conflict with intelligent aliens who are remarkably similar to humans and have unaccountably equivalent technology. 

We might say this makes for a fun game, and that's all that matters.  But people ought to know it's no more realistic than Tolkien's Middle Earth, and I happen to know that people don't know that.  The general public thinks this is what space colonization will really look like because that's what is present in pop culture.  I'd like to see more fictional worlds and games that present a more realistic picture and I think they'll be better stories for it. 

If the human race survives a hundred trillion years and explores a billion galaxies, which is possible, we will never find another planet so much like earth you can eat the fruit off the trees.  This remains true even if our biology was started by some ancient race of precursor aliens.  Life on other planets will probably resemble life on earth in several respects because of convergent evolution, the reason that bats look a lot like a birds and whales look a lot like fish, life presents the same physical challenges to all of us and evolution tends to home in on the most obvious solution to our problems.  Furthermore, it will probably be based on amino acids, maybe even the same amino acids life on earth uses, but regardless of its similarities the life on other planets will be the result of billions of years of different evolutionary pathways and the odds that some other planet is going to produce life you can just eat without being poisoned, contracting an illness, or having some allergic reaction do not exist; it's never going to happen.  We might manufacture other worlds like that eventually, but we aren't going to just find them. 

There are probably no other technological civilizations in this or nearby neighboring galaxies.  If there were, we would have found them by now.  There's a lot to say about all that, but there's good reason to believe that our civilization is much more rare than futurists back in the '60s believed.  The best discussion of this I've ever heard was from a youtube channel called Science & Futurism with Isaac Arthur.  But you can learn about the Fermi Paradox in lots of places.  I think what we're going to find is that there's life everywhere.  There's life on Mars, Europa, Encelidus, and maybe a few other planetoids in this star system, but it rarely develops to technological intelligence. 

Faster than light travel is probably impossible.  The whole universe is built around the speed of light and nothing goes faster than that.  Yeah, there might be some way around it.  Maybe something involving worm holes, but seriously you might as well have ships with drives made of fairy dust fighting with wands of fireballs.  Faster than light travel is not compatible with known physics.  But that doesn't stop space colonization...

There's no problem with getting ships up to 10 or 20 percent light speed.  At that rate you could reach nearby star systems in a few decades, and there's good news on that score because we can probably extend human life until people are totally ageless.  It's normal for people to say that I'm being unreasonably pessimistic about not traveling FTL, and then to scoff at the notion of people living millions, or even trillions, of years.  But that's part of the Star Trek culture.  FTL travel violates the laws of physics.  People who don't age does not. 

But even more, the idea that space colonization is going to be centered around the search for suitable planets wasn't even good science in the '60s.  People were making conceptual art about large space stations back in the '20s, and the idea of making artificial gravity by spinning a capsule in space dates from at least the Gemini missions.  Anywhere we live that isn't Earth will be some artificial simulation of Earth, and you can make a much better simulation in a controlled space habitat than you can on another planet.  That comes with other nice advantages too.  If you live a station with spin gravity, you can step outside into zero-g with no effort while you'll have to launch a rocket off Mars or even the moon.  There's a futurism youtuber called Frasier Cane who likes to say, "Gravity wells are for suckers." 

If you look forward in time a thousand years from you, I think what you'll find is a Sol system with millions and millions of rotating space habitats full of trillions and trillions of people.  We'll probably terraform Venus and Mars just because too many will be stuck on the provincial notion that we should live on planets, but the vast majority of humanity will be born, live, and die in space without ever setting foot on a planet.  And that one solar system federation will be bigger, more sophisticated, with more people, more cultures, more colonies, and more ships than whole galactic empires in science fiction.  And we'll move out to colonize star systems, not earth-like planets.  And in a million years, the intelligent aliens we'll find will be the descendants of colonists from earth that diverged so much from us culturally, technologically, and biologically (thanks partly to genetic engineering) that they will seem much more alien than the guys in suits from classic sci-fi. 

Another big issue with the sci-fi tradition is the timelines involved.  As I recall, the classic space colonization game Master of Orion II started in the year 2500 and I'd usually win in 2530.  Apparently, in 500 years or so we're going to invent some ultimate technology that will solve every problem and there will be no point in progressing further.  That's probably not what's actually going to happen.  I suspect the laws of physics we've got are the actual laws of physics and the technologies of the future are going to be infinitely refining basically the technologies we have now.  They'll be using fusion power and building massive structures with graphene millions of years from now, and the really cool things happening in the future will be quadrant scale construction projects involving multiple galaxies that will take millions of years to complete simply because of their enormity.  Interactions between the different branches of humanity's descandents will get more interesting over time too. 

The universe is going to keep making new stars for about another trillion years or so, and there's no reason to think that humans won't still be there harvesting the resources of a billion galaxies to try to survive as long as possible into the cold, dark eternity that comes after the universe's childhood.  And I think there are stories there that should be told. 
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IonDragonX

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2020, 07:01:50 PM »

We might say this makes for a fun game, and that's all that matters.  But people ought to know it's no more realistic than Tolkien's Middle Earth, and I happen to know that people don't know that.
That's about as far as you go on this video game. Besides, truth is stranger than fiction.
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blainedeyoung

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2020, 10:08:40 PM »

Well, this game is making some motions towards realism. 
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Linnis

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2020, 03:17:14 PM »

It's not about making things real. It's about making things real within the fantasy rules of the said canonical universe.

Things don't have to be real to be believable. You know that nearly all of humanity, are living in a universe working and toiling for something that is unreal made-up fantasy? That thing is money, money only has value in the fantasy mythological minds of animals capable of understanding it.

The Expanse is good because it takes the rules of the universe, and spins a fantasy world around it. Where the rules affect the ways the events play out and are not side-stepped by the author.

Though I read all 3 books on the Expanse when it came out except the last two chapters because it does a 180 on the whole premise. Funnily because my director told me this book could be effortlessly adapted to a movie without much re-write when only the first book came out.

Exactly the same reason why Star Wars Mandalorian is good and the Sequel trilogy is bad, science-fiction-wise. It's about following rules, real or made up, and having a realistic story within.


Also about space colonization. The simple-ist way is to build domes on dead stable planets, preferably with the same atmosphere pressure for dome-safety. Because once GAI becomes available (and it will), industrial expansion and production become insanely cheaper.

Also with GAI and quantum computing, humans might be able to walk around and eat fruits of alien planets. Because these two technologies pared together it can solve nearly all complex biological problems that would be impossible to tackle with only human minds. (Think corona vaccine developed overnight instead of nearly a decade.)
« Last Edit: December 24, 2020, 03:22:47 PM by Linnis »
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blainedeyoung

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2020, 05:15:51 PM »

Money is an abstraction for things that have value.  Cheeseburgers have value because you can eat them.  Steel has value because you can make tools out of it.  If there was no money, the guy who makes cheeseburgers would have to carry around cheeseburgers to trade with people, and no one wants old, cold cheeseburgers, do they? 
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Serenitis

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2020, 03:14:21 AM »

Reality is seldom a good basis for a game or the balance thereof. Simply because reality is inconvenient, frustrating, and frequently not fun.
If you're creating a game for example, building it entirely around "realism" instantly and irrevocably limits the potential audience for such a game to a tiny nieche of whatever nieche your game was already in.
Very few people actually want to deal with "reality" and the chores it demands during thier limited time available to escape from reality.
Artistic takes on "reality" can work just fine without the drudgery, as can abstractions of certain things and/or just straight up ignoring the inconvenient bits.

It's not about making things real. It's about making things real within the fantasy rules of the said canonical universe.
This guy gets it.
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blainedeyoung

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2020, 01:51:07 PM »

I wouldn't ask people to draw the wiring diagram for their ships or figure out the torque to mass ratios, but the problem with just ignoring reality and coming up with your own alternative rules is that it's really hard to come up rules that make for a more interesting story than reality or a setting with nearly as much texture as Earth.  I mentioned The Expanse in my opening remark.  If there isn't already a game based on The Expanse in the works, I'd be surprised.  And I hope you guys are ready for it because this Star Trek impression space colonization is going away.  Forgive me for trying to turn you on to good ideas before everyone gets there. 
« Last Edit: December 27, 2020, 01:56:04 PM by blainedeyoung »
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Thaago

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2020, 02:15:29 PM »

Hi, welcome to the forum! I do agree that a lot of the common space tropes are based either on the 60's science fantasy or on 'wwII in space' (or both). I would caution a bit on using the expanse as a 'realistic' basis though... it does some things right, but the central conceit of its technology is an engine system that is crazy, crazy advanced compared to the rest of the tech in the show, while other aspects are not exactly accurate (I'm looking at you, the fact that radar/telescopes don't exist and railguns don't spall/vaporize. Everyone in that compartment should have been flash fried/exploded by a wave of metal shards and plasma...)
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Morrokain

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2020, 01:09:45 AM »

I suspect the laws of physics we've got are the actual laws of physics and the technologies of the future are going to be infinitely refining basically the technologies we have now.

With the caveat that I know very little about the actual subject matter or at most I have a very dated model of current general theory, I'd say that as a concept this is a really big assumption in the grand scheme of things. Multiple times in the past we have had the hubris to assume we knew everything, only to discover that we really didn't and there was something unaccounted for. It's not to say that knowing all of the laws of physics is impossible but rather to say that it is statistically unlikely.

That being said, games can make up all sorts of rules in order to generate fun gameplay. It does matter that the rules are consistent, and there is a case to made for narrative/lore to follow those rules or otherwise flesh them out, but hyper realism is probably not a good idea for a game.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2020, 01:18:42 AM by Morrokain »
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Harmful Mechanic

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2020, 07:36:01 AM »

I wouldn't ask people to draw the wiring diagram for their ships or figure out the torque to mass ratios, but the problem with just ignoring reality and coming up with your own alternative rules is that it's really hard to come up rules that make for a more interesting story than reality or a setting with nearly as much texture as Earth.
This is all true, but that's a LOT of math even so for something most of your audience is going to see as just neat background. Atomic Rockets helps, but it's still a slog for someone already trying to write a compelling story in readable prose. Or film a compelling movie. Or make a compelling game.

I mentioned The Expanse in my opening remark.  If there isn't already a game based on The Expanse in the works, I'd be surprised.

The Expanse setting started as a pitch for an MMO. It became a series of novels later, but it was always a game setting. It shows through in the way the novels are structured, in the way combat works, and a dozen other little places.

And I hope you guys are ready for it because this Star Trek impression space colonization is going away.  Forgive me for trying to turn you on to good ideas before everyone gets there.
This stuff has been floating around in SF for longer than anybody in this conversation has been alive; the problem isn't that it's new or people don't know about it, it's that:
- Limited budgets and working-up time constrain the complexity of settings. That's changing in some ways, and that's good, and part of the reason we're seeing more realism sneak in. The filmmaking and game-design processes put a lot of pressure on their settings to have bendier and squishier physics.
- Audiences read lots of 'realistic' space flight visuals as fake. Look at Apollo conspiracy theorists and the issues they have with lack of atmospheric scattering in photos, or 'missing stars' due to exposure settings, and other optical artifacts. Eyes and brains made for a gravity well don't handle microgravity optics gracefully. They don't have an intuitive sense of what is or isn't 'realistic' in the same way they do for terrestrial phenomena. If you've never hunted down a copy of Lost Worlds of 2001, do so. It's illuminating.
- Engineering and physics rigor doesn't inherently make for a good story that resonates with an audience. Sad to say; I love that stuff, but it's rare. It's a lot of work to write and edit it. As most writers will tell you, getting anything finished and sold is a minor miracle; filmmakers and game devs will tell you the same thing but more so.

I'd like to see a lot more realism, and for some stories and some games, it's a good choice. For others, it's not. But the thing you need to recognize is that realism doesn't inherently make for a better story, or game, or movie or TV show. It's nice when realism aligns with a good story; it's not always going to. It's nice when fun gameplay and more accurate physics line up; it's not always going to. And going out of business because you spent too much time on fictional engine math and not enough time on project management is a real possibility.

(If you know where the line 'for space is wide and good friends are too few' comes from, that should be all the hard-SF-nerd-cred you need.)
« Last Edit: December 31, 2020, 07:42:39 PM by Harmful Mechanic »
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Thaago

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2020, 08:10:28 PM »

Stumbled back on this, just a few things:
Quote
Faster than light travel is probably impossible.  The whole universe is built around the speed of light and nothing goes faster than that.  Yeah, there might be some way around it.  Maybe something involving worm holes, but seriously you might as well have ships with drives made of fairy dust fighting with wands of fireballs.  Faster than light travel is not compatible with known physics.  But that doesn't stop space colonization...

Well, kind of. On the one hand yes, every single experiment confirms that the predictions of general relativity are accurate, and general relativity has built into its foundations a universal speed limit which any massless particle (including light) happens to travel at. On the other, there are several ways of constructing solutions to general relativity that allow for what is, to an outside observer, faster than light travel. See the Alcubierre drive as an example.

The solutions tend to rely on things that have not been observed: for the Alcubierre solution its negative energy density, which we have no evidence for. However, we also don't have any experimental data disproving negative energy density, and the history of physics is positively littered with things for which there was no evidence until suddenly there was.

So while FTL is frankly unlikely, its actually not incompatible with GR! Its in the 'we don't know enough to disprove this' bin.

Quote
But even more, the idea that space colonization is going to be centered around the search for suitable planets wasn't even good science in the '60s.  People were making conceptual art about large space stations back in the '20s, and the idea of making artificial gravity by spinning a capsule in space dates from at least the Gemini missions.  Anywhere we live that isn't Earth will be some artificial simulation of Earth, and you can make a much better simulation in a controlled space habitat than you can on another planet.  That comes with other nice advantages too.  If you live a station with spin gravity, you can step outside into zero-g with no effort while you'll have to launch a rocket off Mars or even the moon.  There's a futurism youtuber called Frasier Cane who likes to say, "Gravity wells are for suckers."

Interestingly, the higher the energy density of the civilization, the more attractive planets are. Gravity wells are a serious issue, but becomes less so the higher energy density one has access to: nuclear thermal rockets have been theorized for a while and would just need a mass reload, and a hypothetical fusion torch that could operate in atmosphere laughs at the pitiful delta v required for achieving orbit (and for no atmosphere planets there is no problem at all, just build a launcher rail).

But heat, heat is a problem for any space station due to the insulating nature of vacuum and the square cube law and nothing short of cancelling the second law of thermodynamics is going to change that. Eventually massive ferro-fluid (for magnetic guidance) heat dissipation fountains could help, but any industrial scale manufacturing or processing is going to be a lot more cost effective to do on a nice prebuilt heat sink (IE a planet, moon, or sufficiently large asteroid).

Quote
I suspect the laws of physics we've got are the actual laws of physics and the technologies of the future are going to be infinitely refining basically the technologies we have now.  They'll be using fusion power and building massive structures with graphene millions of years from now

I agree that they'll be using those things, but only in the same way that we are still using knives and clothing today: a good idea is a good idea, it doesn't make it the only idea. The vacuum tube was invented in 1904. The silicon transistor was invented in 1954. Graphene was first isolated in 2004. (And in 1854 apparently petroleum was fractionated for the first time? Thanks wikipedia! Thats actually a good milestone even if the fruits of its labors weren't really developed for another half century+). What I'm getting at is that it would be absolutely bizarre for science changing inventions to just... stop. I can't tell you what future inventions will be, but they won't stop coming.
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Linnis

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2020, 12:03:06 AM »

Hi, welcome to the forum! I do agree that a lot of the common space tropes are based either on the 60's science fantasy or on 'wwII in space' (or both). I would caution a bit on using the expanse as a 'realistic' basis though... it does some things right, but the central conceit of its technology is an engine system that is crazy, crazy advanced compared to the rest of the tech in the show, while other aspects are not exactly accurate (I'm looking at you, the fact that radar/telescopes don't exist and railguns don't spall/vaporize. Everyone in that compartment should have been flash fried/exploded by a wave of metal shards and plasma...)

I tend to agree. For Si-fi it is always better not to go too deep. If you really wish for that kind of experience then games and communities like DCS world is there for that. Where the philosophy is that fun comes from simulating real-world combat with all of its technicalities and depth derived from that.

But there ain't the real-life equivalent of combat spaceships that travel from planet to planet to draw those conclusions from.
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Igncom1

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2021, 05:01:28 AM »

Spacecraft are more like aircraft, then they are boats, right?

So closer to rl would be like cold war fighters shooting each other down then battleships duking it out. I think?

That or just MAD with nuke swarms flying across the solar system.
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intrinsic_parity

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2021, 03:01:17 PM »

Neither aircraft nor naval vessels are a good representation of spacecraft IMO. Obviously aircraft actually move in three dimensions while naval vessels move in (approximately) 2, but basically everything else about aircraft (and air combat) is so closely linked to motion through the atmosphere that it really doesn't translate to space at all. I think the notion of naval vessels many kilometers apart taking shots at one another is probably a more realistic conceptualization of how combat would actually play out, but it's still not all that close.

I feel like submarines might be the best comparison, but there's no good comparison for stuff like orbital mechanics, or the simple vastness of space. IMO, it's not even worth trying to get that stuff 'right' most of the time.
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Thaago

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Re: realistic space colonization
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2021, 03:23:54 PM »

In my opinion, the key points of realistic (IE no future tech that changes things) space combat are:

1) Anyone in space is moderately visible (potential for short term thermal camouflage but that does not help occlusion). Anyone burning an engine is super visible. Someone powered down on the surface of a body, with thermal camouflage, could be hidden until their heat emissions noticeably change the heat of the body.

2) Lasers are short range due to dispersion. Optics are very fragile and a cloud of dust at any decent speed would ruin a laser optic (unless it was somehow a regenerative liquid optic, which is possible if whacky and likely to evaporate on firing).

3) Kinetic rounds could be mostly invisible, but given warning of hostilities a cloud of relatively diffuse collision activated fluorescent molecules dispersed between the engagement areas would make them bright again. Speeds may be a fraction of C in theory, but heat concerns in the launcher are severe: if you are putting in a nuclear explosion's worth of energy into a gun slug, the waste heat is going to be on the order of a nuclear explosion. Even 99% efficiency, 1% waste (good luck) is a LOT of energy. Its quite possible that firing of a long range high speed kinetic round will be just as 'bright' as firing an engine.

4) Missiles while drifting may be mostly invisible, subject to the same concerns as kinetic rounds, but will not be able to launch with as high acceleration so will either need specialized systems or will be slower. Missiles burning will be very bright. Missiles almost by definition have lighter armor than ships and so can be stopped by smaller caliber counter munitions.

5) Nuclear explosions are less effective in space than in atmosphere due to a lack of shockwave and may require near contact to be effective. They are still nukes though.

6) Nuke pumped x ray lasers are IMO the most promising "current" tech for making a missile payload capable of hitting a target from a decent range away. I do not believe bomb pumped x ray lasers have ever been actually made with nukes due to treaties, but this is not as far fetched as it sounds.

7) Delta V and ship heat budget is pretty limited. There's only so much dodging a ship can do before it runs out of fuel, and only so much energy that onboard systems can use before everything cooks. Interdiction of incoming ordinance is almost certainly going to be very important.
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